Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
So is how supply/demand works, the cycle has been repeating this way for many
years and likely will for many more. the “good” news is the stores who price
so cheap almost always go out of business in the end which makes their individual
impact relatively low, the bad news is for every one that falls off another takes
their spot and repeats it. In general it’s best to not use the 6-month average
as a rule. Many people are more then fine with paying above the 6-month average
if you have the right selection
Well, it may not be the best way to price, but it is indicative of market direction.
And while I tend to share the alternative pricing model philosophy, this too
seems to not be holding as well lately.
In Selling, Nubs_Select writes:
In general it’s best to not use the 6-month average
as a rule. Many people are more then fine with paying above the 6-month average
if you have the right selection
Well, it may not be the best way to price, but it is indicative of market direction.
And while I tend to share the alternative pricing model philosophy, this too
seems to not be holding as well lately.
There are always ups and downs, I’ve been selling more then ever over the 6-month
average then before and sales are holding stead and still growing as I list more,
it’s best to look at sales in terms of years and not weeks/months to get a bigger
picture, also the other key factor is selection, the more selection the more
sales, selection is often more important then price
In Selling, Nubs_Select writes:
In general it’s best to not use the 6-month average
as a rule. Many people are more then fine with paying above the 6-month average
if you have the right selection
Well, it may not be the best way to price, but it is indicative of market direction.
And while I tend to share the alternative pricing model philosophy, this too
seems to not be holding as well lately.
There are always ups and downs, I’ve been selling more then ever over the 6-month
average then before and sales are holding stead and still growing as I list more,
it’s best to look at sales in terms of years and not weeks/months to get a bigger
picture, also the other key factor is selection, the more selection the more
sales, selection is often more important then price
(Don’t worry I’m not saying you don’t have selection, just that if sales are
low even with a high lot and qty count, it might mean selection needs to be expanded
in some niche way or such)
In Selling, Nubs_Select writes:
In general it’s best to not use the 6-month average
as a rule. Many people are more then fine with paying above the 6-month average
if you have the right selection
Well, it may not be the best way to price, but it is indicative of market direction.
And while I tend to share the alternative pricing model philosophy, this too
seems to not be holding as well lately.
There are always ups and downs, I’ve been selling more then ever over the 6-month
average then before and sales are holding stead and still growing as I list more,
it’s best to look at sales in terms of years and not weeks/months to get a bigger
picture, also the other key factor is selection, the more selection the more
sales, selection is often more important then price
(Don’t worry I’m not saying you don’t have selection, just that if sales are
low even with a high lot and qty count, it might mean selection needs to be expanded
in some niche way or such)
Trends change. “Favorite” parts and colours change. The market change.
Sellers need to adjust constantly.
Trends change. “Favorite” parts and colours change. The market change.
Sellers need to adjust constantly.
One thing that amazes me is how part-out values start out so high (like 4x or
even 5x the price of the set) and then drop. But I guess keeping your inventory
"fresh" helps with that.
Trends change. “Favorite” parts and colours change. The market change.
Sellers need to adjust constantly.
One thing that amazes me is how part-out values start out so high (like 4x or
even 5x the price of the set) and then drop. But I guess keeping your inventory
"fresh" helps with that.
It pays to be the first one to list when there are exclusive or first run minifigures,
and also when there are new parts/colors. You can set your own price for at
least a few days up to three weeks in some rare cases. But what amazes me is
when the second-tenth store lists their part out of the same set, they are already
25% less in most cases. These people didn't use the 6mo average nor the
CIA - or if they did they then cut their rate by xx%. It baffles me.
Trends change. “Favorite” parts and colours change. The market change.
Sellers need to adjust constantly.
One thing that amazes me is how part-out values start out so high (like 4x or
even 5x the price of the set) and then drop. But I guess keeping your inventory
"fresh" helps with that.
It pays to be the first one to list when there are exclusive or first run minifigures,
and also when there are new parts/colors. You can set your own price for at
least a few days up to three weeks in some rare cases.
As a stingy buyer, I don’t really understand those who buy new parts/colours
as soon as they are out when you can wait a few weeks for a much lower price.
Good for you, sellers, that all buyers aren’t like me
But what amazes me is
when the second-tenth store lists their part out of the same set, they are already
25% less in most cases. These people didn't use the 6mo average nor the
CIA - or if they did they then cut their rate by xx%. It baffles me.
Is there a formula out there to guess how many buyers would want to buy at what
price?
I mean, the distribution of number of potential buyers by price for an item would
look like the pic below (potential buyers on the vertical axis, price on the
horizontal).
(Yes, I took the pic from Wikipedia’s article on Long Tail… but I didn’t read
the article even if an answer could be there )
The first seller can set a high price because:
— there’s no competitor,
— they generally don’t have a lot of stock, so they don’t need too many buyers.
And then the second seller needs to put a lower price to undermine the first
seller… but how can they know if 10% less is not still too high to compete, especially
as there’s undoubtedbly a third seller coming, and a fourth, etc.
So, maybe that’s why the second seller generally chooses -25%? They are “too
much” afraid of the following sellers? (“Too much” in your opinion.) But are
they right?
I just have certain goals I need to hit to make this sustainable and the confluence
of the rising cost to acquire (new product) and the deteriorating inventory prices,
I'm a wee bit nervous.
But I am a simple man and after I get my daughter through college, I can just
move into the woods.......................................
In Selling, Nubs_Select writes:
(Don’t worry I’m not saying you don’t have selection, just that if sales are
low even with a high lot and qty count, it might mean selection needs to be expanded
in some niche way or such)
I just have certain goals I need to hit to make this sustainable and the confluence
of the rising cost to acquire (new product) and the deteriorating inventory prices,
I'm a wee bit nervous.
It is a tricky game! It seems every year things need to be switched up in order
to stay competitive, but I completely understand where your coming from
But I am a simple man and after I get my daughter through college, I can just
move into the woods.......................................
Solid goals!
In Selling, Nubs_Select writes:
(Don’t worry I’m not saying you don’t have selection, just that if sales are
low even with a high lot and qty count, it might mean selection needs to be expanded
in some niche way or such)
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Well, this kind of analysis has regularly popped on the forum since I started
reading it, some 11 years ago. So I’m not sure the conclusions are correct…
or they are very long in coming.
It seems more that the sellers who only use that sort of strategy (below average
for everything) either
1. are not in it for the profit; they are just partly funding their LEGO addiction,
2. are not in it for long; they just end up quitting because they aren’t making
enough profit.
I don’t think they really hurt the established stores (especially the big ones).
They may make it difficult for new stores to grow and establish themselves.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
I can appreciate that, And I do have a nice set of repeat customers.
Conversely, I have seen a number of larger, somewhat established stateside sellers
bail recently.
Time will tell.
In Selling, SylvainLS writes:
Well, this kind of analysis has regularly popped on the forum since I started
reading it, some 11 years ago. So I’m not sure the conclusions are correct…
or they are very long in coming.
(2) there are too many sellers who don't know what they are doing and end
up earning less than even minimum wage.
(3) there are constant sales, because sellers need the cash flow to cover fixed
costs (payroll, warehouse space, etc).
(4) there is way too much inventory for sale, resulting in a race to the bottom.
An ever-increasing portion of the catalog consists of now worthless 1, 2 and
5 cent pieces that never sell.
I used to get alot of international orders but these orders have cratered due
to the significant increase in international shipping costs. Add in the big additional
cost to buyers from the mandatory collection of Value Added Taxes (VAT) at very
high tax rates.
Lastly, let's see what happens with Pick a Brick (and Bricklink itself) when
the Virgnia plant comes online.
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
If I had a Time Machine, I would set it for 2007. I would buy up ALL THE LEGO
I could find anywhere and bring it to Back to the Future to sell now.
2007 was *before* LEGO made a lot of part modifications/new variants, but had
firmly made the switch to Bley and Reddish colors that started in 2003. It was
also *before* LEGO made their outsourcing move to FlexTronics which caused the
"Brittle Brown" and other quality problems.
Then, I could part out the sets from 2005 to 2007 and sell the parts as NEW Condition.
I could make a Ton of Money selling the old part variants in NEW Condition.
Because as it is, I am running out of the old part variants in NEW condition
to sell. That is the only segment of my inventory that is bringing in the orders
and decent cash.
The brand new elements in all the wacky colors in current sets of the past few
years are not selling. They just keep accumulating and keep losing value.
[…]
2007 was *before* LEGO made a lot of part modifications/new variants, but had
firmly made the switch to Bley and Reddish colors that started in 2003. It was
also *before* LEGO made their outsourcing move to FlexTronics which caused the
"Brittle Brown" and other quality problems.
🤔 The outsourcing to Flextronics lasted only until 2008¹. The Brittle Brown
problem lasted many years after that.
¹ history/articles/i-outsourcing-and-insourcing on lego.com
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
If I had a Time Machine, I would set it for 2007. I would buy up ALL THE LEGO
I could find anywhere and bring it to Back to the Future to sell now.
I would go back and buy stocks such as Apple and not need to work. And if I was
buying as much LEGO as I could and bringing it to the future, I'd sell sets
only rather than parts.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
If I had a Time Machine, I would set it for 2007. I would buy up ALL THE LEGO
I could find anywhere and bring it to Back to the Future to sell now.
I would go back and buy stocks such as Apple and not need to work. And if I was
buying as much LEGO as I could and bringing it to the future, I'd sell sets
only rather than parts.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
If I had a Time Machine, I would set it for 2007. I would buy up ALL THE LEGO
I could find anywhere and bring it to Back to the Future to sell now.
I would go back and buy stocks such as Apple and not need to work. And if I was
buying as much LEGO as I could and bringing it to the future, I'd sell sets
only rather than parts.
#NVDA baby.
I'd spread between many of the tech companies. Although if I knew results,
I could just go for one company or better still, win lotteries multiple times.
Crazy to think that when I bought my first LEGO set as an AFOL, apple was about
a dollar a share. When I joined here, it was still only about 12.
Imagine if long term and big inventory sellers here would have bought best performing
tech stock rather than LEGO. No work, no storage costs.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
If I had a Time Machine, I would set it for 2007. I would buy up ALL THE LEGO
I could find anywhere and bring it to Back to the Future to sell now.
I would go back and buy stocks such as Apple and not need to work. And if I was
buying as much LEGO as I could and bringing it to the future, I'd sell sets
only rather than parts.
If I had a Time Machine, I would set it for 2007. I would buy up ALL THE LEGO
I could find anywhere and bring it to Back to the Future to sell now.
2007 was *before* LEGO made a lot of part modifications/new variants, but had
firmly made the switch to Bley and Reddish colors that started in 2003. It was
also *before* LEGO made their outsourcing move to FlexTronics which caused the
"Brittle Brown" and other quality problems.
Then, I could part out the sets from 2005 to 2007 and sell the parts as NEW Condition.
I could make a Ton of Money selling the old part variants in NEW Condition.
Assuming that the whole thing is going to be about time travel to make money
on Bricklink, you have set your clock incorrectly. Go get Classic Space, Castle,
and Pirates sets. Every one that you pick up for $80 is one more person that
always wished they got that set. They sell for multiples thousands of dollars
now.
Assuming that the whole thing is going to be about time travel to make money
on Bricklink, you have set your clock incorrectly. Go get Classic Space, Castle,
and Pirates sets. Every one that you pick up for $80 is one more person that
always wished they got that set. They sell for multiples thousands of dollars
now.
It is an interesting thought experiment, but I wonder if the value would be there
if someone did go back in time and remove every Classic Space/Castle/Pirates
set that they could from shelves so that kids of the 80s/90s were not able to
get them at the time. If they have no nostalgic link to them, would they be so
valuable to those grown up kids now? It would be like trying to launch a brand
new theme with very old fashioned designs now.
So if anyone does build a time machine, it is probably best not to take all the
stock from back then. Leave some for the kid of the time to get hooked on them.
Assuming that the whole thing is going to be about time travel to make money
on Bricklink, you have set your clock incorrectly. Go get Classic Space, Castle,
and Pirates sets. Every one that you pick up for $80 is one more person that
always wished they got that set. They sell for multiples thousands of dollars
now.
It is an interesting thought experiment, but I wonder if the value would be there
if someone did go back in time and remove every Classic Space/Castle/Pirates
set that they could from shelves so that kids of the 80s/90s were not able to
get them at the time. If they have no nostalgic link to them, would they be so
valuable to those grown up kids now? It would be like trying to launch a brand
new theme with very old fashioned designs now.
So if anyone does build a time machine, it is probably best not to take all the
stock from back then. Leave some for the kid of the time to get hooked on them.
You don't need to take anywhere close to all them. Take 10 of each and see
where that gets you.
Im pulling in good money for 90s mighty max, no one remembers that. Off brand.
I think lego alternate universe is just fine
In Selling, yorbrick writes:
Assuming that the whole thing is going to be about time travel to make money
on Bricklink, you have set your clock incorrectly. Go get Classic Space, Castle,
and Pirates sets. Every one that you pick up for $80 is one more person that
always wished they got that set. They sell for multiples thousands of dollars
now.
It is an interesting thought experiment, but I wonder if the value would be there
if someone did go back in time and remove every Classic Space/Castle/Pirates
set that they could from shelves so that kids of the 80s/90s were not able to
get them at the time. If they have no nostalgic link to them, would they be so
valuable to those grown up kids now? It would be like trying to launch a brand
new theme with very old fashioned designs now.
So if anyone does build a time machine, it is probably best not to take all the
stock from back then. Leave some for the kid of the time to get hooked on them.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
Not sure Pizza will solve this.
I'd start by saying you should all google 'The sunk cost fallacy'
We get so many messages from 'soon to be sellers' or 'recently out
of a job want to take my BL shop to full time' asking for tips, presumably
because of our shop size.
It's so many that we have a template message responding (respectfully).
The short version is: keep your day job for health insurance and income as you
won't realize enough to sustain yourself and grow a shop for many years,
when you calculate your profits or prices you should add your TIME into the formula-
you'll find that you're gonna be making less than a cobalt miner in the
Congo for a long while. the odds of making this into a business that will sustain
a family are extremely slim, especially with current market conditions. We explain
that all the social media posts showing how easy it is are meant to draw views
more than be factual or accurate.
Predictably- every single one of them responds with complete dismissal of our
advice and explain why they believe they will do better and succeed. The cheeky
ones press on by saying they were only looking for X. X being a number of shortcuts
or insider tracks they believe we can offer (spoiler- we can't).
The others try to save face by saying they are only doing this 'for fun'
(if you believe that someone asking on advice on how to generate more income
is doing this for fun).
In many cases- they return to us a year or two later asking if we want to buy
their entire inventory as they've grown tired of this endeavor. We always
decline as we have a very different business model than feasting on the carcasses
of failed shops (again, our template message is a lot more refined and polite
than this post).
The only thing worse than realize you have failed is to keep pressing on for
many more years digging a bigger hole for yourself working for slave wages and
devoid of joy- that's the 'fallacy of sunken costs'
but who knows- you (the royal you not any of you specifically) might be that
lucky one who makes it...
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
Not sure Pizza will solve this.
I'd start by saying you should all google 'The sunk cost fallacy'
We get so many messages from 'soon to be sellers' or 'recently out
of a job want to take my BL shop to full time' asking for tips, presumably
because of our shop size.
It's so many that we have a template message responding (respectfully).
The short version is: keep your day job for health insurance and income as you
won't realize enough to sustain yourself and grow a shop for many years,
when you calculate your profits or prices you should add your TIME into the formula-
you'll find that you're gonna be making less than a cobalt miner in the
Congo for a long while. the odds of making this into a business that will sustain
a family are extremely slim, especially with current market conditions. We explain
that all the social media posts showing how easy it is are meant to draw views
more than be factual or accurate.
Predictably- every single one of them responds with complete dismissal of our
advice and explain why they believe they will do better and succeed. The cheeky
ones press on by saying they were only looking for X. X being a number of shortcuts
or insider tracks they believe we can offer (spoiler- we can't).
The others try to save face by saying they are only doing this 'for fun'
(if you believe that someone asking on advice on how to generate more income
is doing this for fun).
In many cases- they return to us a year or two later asking if we want to buy
their entire inventory as they've grown tired of this endeavor. We always
decline as we have a very different business model than feasting on the carcasses
of failed shops (again, our template message is a lot more refined and polite
than this post).
The only thing worse than realize you have failed is to keep pressing on for
many more years digging a bigger hole for yourself working for slave wages and
devoid of joy- that's the 'fallacy of sunken costs'
but who knows- you (the royal you not any of you specifically) might be that
lucky one who makes it...
may the odds be ever in your favor...
indeed, its quite a job to make this livable, even tho I've been selling
for many years, I've still never taken monthly pay (tho i look forward to
one ), this is not a job one should take if they have a high cost of living
(married/kids, live on their own, health insurance, etc). but the tradeoff is
it can be fun (if you like sorting Lego all day ).
my initial store debts are still there (tho much less ever single year) and after
all this time i feel i can finally see the horizon of it actually being profitable
after many many lessons over the years
Im familiar with the sunk cost fallacy. That was Freshman year.
Im also familiar with your "Advice."
And your opinions. You make them very clear.
In Selling, Heartbricker writes:
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
Like @ 25% deterioration over the last 2 years on a number of products.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
If everyone prices off of last six months average and then runs sales, well,
then the deterioration continues and eventually the market fully deteriorates
for everyone.
I'm just a new guy but it looks bleak.
Not to mention economic, trade, and other headwinds.
Not sure Pizza will solve this.
I'd start by saying you should all google 'The sunk cost fallacy'
We get so many messages from 'soon to be sellers' or 'recently out
of a job want to take my BL shop to full time' asking for tips, presumably
because of our shop size.
It's so many that we have a template message responding (respectfully).
The short version is: keep your day job for health insurance and income as you
won't realize enough to sustain yourself and grow a shop for many years,
when you calculate your profits or prices you should add your TIME into the formula-
you'll find that you're gonna be making less than a cobalt miner in the
Congo for a long while. the odds of making this into a business that will sustain
a family are extremely slim, especially with current market conditions. We explain
that all the social media posts showing how easy it is are meant to draw views
more than be factual or accurate.
Predictably- every single one of them responds with complete dismissal of our
advice and explain why they believe they will do better and succeed. The cheeky
ones press on by saying they were only looking for X. X being a number of shortcuts
or insider tracks they believe we can offer (spoiler- we can't).
The others try to save face by saying they are only doing this 'for fun'
(if you believe that someone asking on advice on how to generate more income
is doing this for fun).
In many cases- they return to us a year or two later asking if we want to buy
their entire inventory as they've grown tired of this endeavor. We always
decline as we have a very different business model than feasting on the carcasses
of failed shops (again, our template message is a lot more refined and polite
than this post).
The only thing worse than realize you have failed is to keep pressing on for
many more years digging a bigger hole for yourself working for slave wages and
devoid of joy- that's the 'fallacy of sunken costs'
but who knows- you (the royal you not any of you specifically) might be that
lucky one who makes it...
Im familiar with the sunk cost fallacy. That was Freshman year.
Im also familiar with your "Advice."
And your opinions. You make them very clear.
This comment piqued my interest so i searched our past correspondence.
You were one of less than a handful of people who i actually didn't use our
pre-typed template and responded to personally.
I can see why you seem disgruntled by my previous comment here.
The comment i made here may seem like it was a very personal reference to you
based on our correspondence but it honestly wasn't and we get many very similar
messages with very similar backstory and characteristic.
Sorry if this response felt like a personal insult, it wasn't my intention.
I still think that there's good bits in my messages that can give you some
insight on what we do differently than most other sellers in order to succeed
weather our BL shop is doing well or poorly.
I think maybe we were both presumptuous in different ways. If I offended you,
I sincerely apologize.
Best wishes to you as well.
And it might modestly amuse you that I've probably put bids in on some of
those stores you didn't want to buy. But they never took my bids. Expectations
on static inventory generally don't reflect profitable discounted cash flow
/ inventory turnover models.
Heartbricker writes:
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Im familiar with the sunk cost fallacy. That was Freshman year.
Im also familiar with your "Advice."
And your opinions. You make them very clear.
This comment piqued my interest so i searched our past correspondence.
You were one of less than a handful of people who i actually didn't use our
pre-typed template and responded to personally.
I can see why you seem disgruntled by my previous comment here.
The comment i made here may seem like it was a very personal reference to you
based on our correspondence but it honestly wasn't and we get many very similar
messages with very similar backstory and characteristic.
Sorry if this response felt like a personal insult, it wasn't my intention.
I still think that there's good bits in my messages that can give you some
insight on what we do differently than most other sellers in order to succeed
weather our BL shop is doing well or poorly.
I think maybe we were both presumptuous in different ways. If I offended you,
I sincerely apologize.
Nothing to apologize about- no offense taken whatsoever.
I very much believe that the original statement I made here are true, specially
in current market conditions.
We can only make adjustments to our operation that would suit current market
condition- waiting for the market to adjust to our operation is futile.
You've been around longer; Was there a spike in new stores during the lock
downs and after stories from the Wall Street Journal about LEGO investing or
is it a constant march of sellers not making it beyond 2 years?
You've been around longer; Was there a spike in new stores during the lock
downs and after stories from the Wall Street Journal about LEGO investing or
is it a constant march of sellers not making it beyond 2 years?
Yeah, big uptick, many stick around for more than 2 years but pretty stagnant,
just finding it hard to let go and hoping that that one day their time, money
and effort will yield a return (again, google 'fallacy of sunk cost'
and you'll understand the mentality).
You need to do a lot more than hope in order to succeed. adding inventory isn't
always the answer if you sell it at a loss or a yield/time spent ration that's
under the minimum wage.
We get so many messages from 'soon to be sellers' or 'recently out
of a job want to take my BL shop to full time' asking for tips, presumably
because of our shop size.
It's so many that we have a template message responding (respectfully).
Would you consider posting your template? It sounds like it would be a useful
counter to the inaccurate garbage on social media.
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
My 2 errr 0.2 cents (?) about this.
YES, price of generic parts have spiraled down.
For a few years one can easily find brand New parts by (tens of) thousands under
the Euro or Dollar cent.
At a point I really wondered why someone would buy Used parts, often more expensive
because they imply sorting, checking, washing...
Here is an example - picture below - of our sales (I have all the e-mails since
2000 and before) - those are actual real true genuine numbers, extract from BrickLink
e-mail invoices.
In short the New White Plate 1x1 has decreased of something like 56%.
More interesting is that, here in France anyway, the base salary "SMIC"
was 9.22€ per hour in 2012, and 11.88€ in 2025 - that's an increase of 29%.
So, price for this part was -56% and salary cost was +29%
But grocery (eggs?) and base prices has more than doubled since 2012, so we're
talking about +100% or +200%.
Which is why we decided to:
* never set ANY price under 0.02€ (a bit arbitrary) - see our 2780 Technic Pin
is at 0.02€...
* in January 2025, implement for the first time in the shop's life a fee
regarding lots/value after having received an order... of 79 lots for 11€ value
(shipping and taxes included).
I feel you on the minimum price. I try to not go below .03 a part.
Additionally minimum lot values, minimum order totals or offsetting fees are
necessary to ensure sales are profitable to offset costs and overhead.
I get that every dealer has a different model, but I am often puzzled by the
stores that seem to want every sale, regardless of size or lot value.
I use a few models but essentially, they all boil down to 1/3, 1/3, 1/3.
1/3 inventory acquisition, 1/3 fixed and variable operational costs, 1/3 profit.
Obviously, they fluctuate, but that is the oversimplified base model.
And there are average order value and average daily order quantity goals.
At the end of the day it's a cash flow / sources and uses of cash game.
And yes - costs are going up while sales prices are decreasing (at least short
term). There are bigger global conversations there, but that gets dangerously
close to taboo topics. And I don't wanna break any rules or open that can
of worms.
Curiously enough, sales are showing life just after I made this post.
I just had a down month and got a wee bit nervous. Resultingly, I took a look
at marking my inventory to market and made myself even more nervous.
I do genuinely appreciate the feedback.
In Selling, 1001bricks writes:
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Pricing has been going on a tremendous downward spiral.
My 2 errr 0.2 cents (?) about this.
YES, price of generic parts have spiraled down.
For a few years one can easily find brand New parts by (tens of) thousands under
the Euro or Dollar cent.
At a point I really wondered why someone would buy Used parts, often more expensive
because they imply sorting, checking, washing...
Here is an example - picture below - of our sales (I have all the e-mails since
2000 and before) - those are actual real true genuine numbers, extract from BrickLink
e-mail invoices.
In short the New White Plate 1x1 has decreased of something like 56%.
More interesting is that, here in France anyway, the base salary "SMIC"
was 9.22€ per hour in 2012, and 11.88€ in 2025 - that's an increase of 29%.
So, price for this part was -56% and salary cost was +29%
But grocery (eggs?) and base prices has more than doubled since 2012, so we're
talking about +100% or +200%.
Which is why we decided to:
* never set ANY price under 0.02€ (a bit arbitrary) - see our 2780 Technic Pin
is at 0.02€...
* in January 2025, implement for the first time in the shop's life a fee
regarding lots/value after having received an order... of 79 lots for 11€ value
(shipping and taxes included).
At a point I really wondered why someone would buy Used parts, often more expensive
because they imply sorting, checking, washing...
Yeah - if you are referring to the seller side, the only justification I can
come up with is product mix -- getting that incremental part that gets you
that sale. That being said, I'm not sure if the economics work here.
But I tend to get the product for nearly nothing. Cost is, as you say, in processing.
[…]
But grocery (eggs?) and base prices has more than doubled since 2012, so we're
talking about +100% or +200%.
Inflation between 2012 and 2025 was 25%.
A quick search only gave me the “by item” numbers¹ between 2015 and 2025:
— global inflation was 21%,
— food inflation was 34%.
So, unless you’re only living on olive oil², “+100% or +200%” is, if one is charitable,
Good Old Days Syndrome.
(Eggs were +31%. Eggs’ price is not a good indicator because it varies a lot
and quickly, and we generally only remember the increases, but, on the length,
it doesn’t vary that much.)
———
¹ https://france-inflation.com/graphique-evolution-ipc-par-poste.php
² “food” category’s champion with +100% between 2015 and 2025.
[…]
But grocery (eggs?) and base prices has more than doubled since 2012, so we're
talking about +100% or +200%.
Inflation between 2012 and 2025 was 25%.
A quick search only gave me the “by item” numbers¹ between 2015 and 2025:
— global inflation was 21%,
— food inflation was 34%.
So, unless you’re only living on olive oil², “+100% or +200%” is, if one is charitable,
Good Old Days Syndrome.
Yeah yeah I hear you, but for last 10 years:
* power price increased by 75+%
* natural gas multiplied approx 1.5x
* la Poste stamps doubled
* car gasoline about 50%...
Those and many others costs have FAR more impact on a shop and the buyers (here
anyway) than the carrot price.
So it's not 100%, maybe not - but it's far more than the 'inflation'
Yeah yeah I hear you, but for last 10 years:
* power price increased by 75+%
* natural gas multiplied approx 1.5x
* la Poste stamps doubled
* car gasoline about 50%...
Just pull a file you have from 2 years ago, or a year ago. Load into brickstore
or whatever model you use and reprice it based on the same method you used initially.
I believe you will see a similar variance. You may want to remove non core products.
That at a minimum will give you the directional evidence.
Hope that helps.
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
The variance in 6 month sales average in core product in my inventory (its a
good proxy) over the last 2 years based on 6ma sales prices.
You can't check my math - I'm not sending you my pricing files.
In Selling, axaday writes:
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Simple mark to market using the 6 month average sales price.
The 6 month average sales price of what?
w/ an ajustment for initial variance at time of listing and a liberal adjustment
to remove impact of non-core (slow moving) parts.
For clarity - by adjustment, I am refering to any variance I apply to product
categories at time of ingestion. You would need to hold the adjustment constant
regardless of if you are using a variance of 6ma or another method.
Again, my model doesn't matter. I'm just saying you would need to keep
your model constant.
If you simply used 6ma at time of initial product listing / ingestion, you would
not need a variance. Assuming you have at least a relatively constant mix of
core product, you can compare the initial file to a marked to market file.
But..... You need the initial file.
I hope that helps.
have on product categoriesIn Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Just pull a file you have from 2 years ago, or a year ago. Load into brickstore
or whatever model you use and reprice it based on the same method you used initially.
I believe you will see a similar variance. You may want to remove non core products.
That at a minimum will give you the directional evidence.
Hope that helps.
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
The variance in 6 month sales average in core product in my inventory (its a
good proxy) over the last 2 years based on 6ma sales prices.
You can't check my math - I'm not sending you my pricing files.
In Selling, axaday writes:
In Selling, FLUSH2020 writes:
Simple mark to market using the 6 month average sales price.
The 6 month average sales price of what?
w/ an ajustment for initial variance at time of listing and a liberal adjustment
to remove impact of non-core (slow moving) parts.
LEGO produce so many sets these days that there is so much choice for sets at
RRP or down to about 80% RRP. If I wanted to buy just a LEGO set to build, I
wouldn't buy from a reseller.
Many sets from evergreen themes are redone (often better) and so there is little
point buying older ones at inflated prices when the modern one can be had for
a lower price. If I wanted a set from a specific theme, I wouldn't buy from
a reseller. If I wanted a specific thing from that theme, I might need to buy
from a reseller but I'd still weigh it up against what the same money buys
me at retail.
The hype over set reselling means 1000s of sets are stored away as investments
and I doubt any recent retail sets, especially small to mid range sets, will
ever be that hard to find again due to the number of sellers and so this will
cap their prices.
PARTS ...
LEGO sells many parts themselves these days through PAB. That will limit the
price of relatively uncommon parts. The less common parts that might have driven
the higher part out value of a set cannot be relied upon any more, aside from
maybe the first couple of months.
So many people buy sets and sell the parts individually (maybe keeping minifigures
for themselves, or split to sell the minifigures separately) that the market
is flooded with new parts from especially common, cheap sets. The common parts
spiral downwards and become not worth bothering with. And that is when they are
new. If they are used, they are not worth the time sorting them unless on an
industrial scale.
Even minifigures from some themes are becoming almost worthless due to repetition
in large numbers of current sets and in reseller inventory - look at the number
of repeats of Harry Potter common figures and what they sell for (or more often,
don't sell for).
Unless you want a specific retired set, or need new parts that are not available
for a reasonable price on PAB, there is far less need to go to a reseller compared
to a decade ago. There will of course be "winners" for sets and minifigures,
especially where that theme is popular but not evergreen and future supply is
limited or where that theme has a series type collectability (such as Modulars).
Although even with Modulars, new collectors are less likely to go back to Cafe
Corner now and if they cannot aim to have them all, then there is less reason
to pick up other earlier ones or even just past ones for high prices when there
will be new better priced ones if they wait.
There is of course very good money in some older parts but they are needles in
haystacks now. If you can find old sets that are mainly complete then you have
a good chance of finding them, but in random bulk lots they are rare. And the
common bulk seems to be worth very little, at least if you need to to sort it.
I know one guy with a large storage container full of tubs of random bulk who
thinks it is his pension. Good luck to him getting someone to sort through multiple
hundreds of kilos of basic colour, basic bricks to find value in it and then
to liquidate the value.
The LEGO fan base has definitely increased over the past decade, but I think
many new fans buy sets rather than MOC, and even though MOCs are also more popular
than ever, the number of sellers selling basic parts has driven down the prices
to the point where it is hardly worth parting some new sets out.
I saw a new sealed 75267 Mandalorian Battle pack for £12 in a store the other
day. RRP was £13 and it has been retired for about 3 years. The part out value
for the parts only is £4 and I reckon £2 is more likely to actually sell most
of those parts in a reasonable time. The figures, I reckon you'd be lucky
to get £10 for them all to sell in six months. There are many 100s of those figures
already on BL at about £4 each or less, and so that caps the likely sales price
for the 4 to £16 if you want a reasonably fast turnover. I wouldn't buy it
for a part out and I wouldn't buy it to resell as a set. And that is a set
that has retired. There is no way I'd buy into similar battle packs these
days unless they were very heavily discounted. And the same goes for so many
themes, not just SW and HP, but City, Ninjago and Friends. There is just too
much product available.
LEGO produce so many sets these days that there is so much choice for sets at
RRP or down to about 80% RRP. If I wanted to buy just a LEGO set to build, I
wouldn't buy from a reseller.
Many sets from evergreen themes are redone (often better) and so there is little
point buying older ones at inflated prices when the modern one can be had for
a lower price. If I wanted a set from a specific theme, I wouldn't buy from
a reseller. If I wanted a specific thing from that theme, I might need to buy
from a reseller but I'd still weigh it up against what the same money buys
me at retail.
The hype over set reselling means 1000s of sets are stored away as investments
and I doubt any recent retail sets, especially small to mid range sets, will
ever be that hard to find again due to the number of sellers and so this will
cap their prices.
PARTS ...
LEGO sells many parts themselves these days through PAB. That will limit the
price of relatively uncommon parts. The less common parts that might have driven
the higher part out value of a set cannot be relied upon any more, aside from
maybe the first couple of months.
So many people buy sets and sell the parts individually (maybe keeping minifigures
for themselves, or split to sell the minifigures separately) that the market
is flooded with new parts from especially common, cheap sets. The common parts
spiral downwards and become not worth bothering with. And that is when they are
new. If they are used, they are not worth the time sorting them unless on an
industrial scale.
Even minifigures from some themes are becoming almost worthless due to repetition
in large numbers of current sets and in reseller inventory - look at the number
of repeats of Harry Potter common figures and what they sell for (or more often,
don't sell for).
Unless you want a specific retired set, or need new parts that are not available
for a reasonable price on PAB, there is far less need to go to a reseller compared
to a decade ago. There will of course be "winners" for sets and minifigures,
especially where that theme is popular but not evergreen and future supply is
limited or where that theme has a series type collectability (such as Modulars).
Although even with Modulars, new collectors are less likely to go back to Cafe
Corner now and if they cannot aim to have them all, then there is less reason
to pick up other earlier ones or even just past ones for high prices when there
will be new better priced ones if they wait.
There is of course very good money in some older parts but they are needles in
haystacks now. If you can find old sets that are mainly complete then you have
a good chance of finding them, but in random bulk lots they are rare. And the
common bulk seems to be worth very little, at least if you need to to sort it.
I know one guy with a large storage container full of tubs of random bulk who
thinks it is his pension. Good luck to him getting someone to sort through multiple
hundreds of kilos of basic colour, basic bricks to find value in it and then
to liquidate the value.
The LEGO fan base has definitely increased over the past decade, but I think
many new fans buy sets rather than MOC, and even though MOCs are also more popular
than ever, the number of sellers selling basic parts has driven down the prices
to the point where it is hardly worth parting some new sets out.
I saw a new sealed 75267 Mandalorian Battle pack for £12 in a store the other
day. RRP was £13 and it has been retired for about 3 years. The part out value
for the parts only is £4 and I reckon £2 is more likely to actually sell most
of those parts in a reasonable time. The figures, I reckon you'd be lucky
to get £10 for them all to sell in six months. There are many 100s of those figures
already on BL at about £4 each or less, and so that caps the likely sales price
for the 4 to £16 if you want a reasonably fast turnover. I wouldn't buy it
for a part out and I wouldn't buy it to resell as a set. And that is a set
that has retired. There is no way I'd buy into similar battle packs these
days unless they were very heavily discounted. And the same goes for so many
themes, not just SW and HP, but City, Ninjago and Friends. There is just too
much product available.
Great synopsis, i would also add that cheap knock off brands for both sets and
pieces have also taken a bite out of the LEGO market.
Great synopsis, i would also add that cheap knock off brands for both sets and
pieces have also taken a bite out of the LEGO market.
This is one of the other headwinds I have referred to in many of my posts. I
was just being overly cautious in bringing up competitive product on the forum.
It goes hand in hand with what, in my little mind, I percieve as a global economic
slowdown. But that is a whole other can o' worms.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
The frustrating thing for me when this sort of topic comes up is....and I don't
even know how important history is. But Bricklink was created for people to
trade off their extra stuff for someone else's extra stuff. People came
along and realized they might be able to do this as a full time job and some
people have succeeded at it and I think that is cool as heck. But when it doesn't
work out and they come back and say that it is the fault of the people who are
using it as it was originally intended, what gives? Nobody hired anybody to
be a Bricklink seller and nobody promised anybody that they could do it. The
people that are trying to clear pieces that come with their minifigs or the stuff
they don't want from a garage sale find or just now and then get something
at a flea market or a clearance set are legitimate Bricklink users and there
is no legit reason that they need to keep the prices up for people who want to
do it full-time.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
The frustrating thing for me when this sort of topic comes up is....and I don't
even know how important history is. But Bricklink was created for people to
trade off their extra stuff for someone else's extra stuff. People came
along and realized they might be able to do this as a full time job and some
people have succeeded at it and I think that is cool as heck. But when it doesn't
work out and they come back and say that it is the fault of the people who are
using it as it was originally intended, what gives? Nobody hired anybody to
be a Bricklink seller and nobody promised anybody that they could do it. The
people that are trying to clear pieces that come with their minifigs or the stuff
they don't want from a garage sale find or just now and then get something
at a flea market or a clearance set are legitimate Bricklink users and there
is no legit reason that they need to keep the prices up for people who want to
do it full-time.
I couldn't agree more with this entire observation.
I'm a seller, so I pay attention to part-out values and item demand. It's
nice to make some extra money, and I sometimes use that money to buy LEGO for
myself that I might not otherwise buy if I didn't have some modest profits
from my BL store. However, I never once intended for BL to even supplement my
income, much less be my sole source of income.
Sometimes I'll part-out sets simply becasue they contain some parts or figs
that I want, not because they will make a hefty profit. In those cases, it's
nice to have an established store where I can unload parts that I'll probably
never use which, as you pointed out, was BrickLink's original purpose. My
store is my primary source of parts for my personal projects.
The worst case scenario for me is that BrickLink shuts down and I have a bunch
of (paid for) inventory that we can use for some pretty cool building projects.
Great for buyers (short term). But likely death for a number of sellers.
The frustrating thing for me when this sort of topic comes up is....and I don't
even know how important history is. But Bricklink was created for people to
trade off their extra stuff for someone else's extra stuff. People came
along and realized they might be able to do this as a full time job and some
people have succeeded at it and I think that is cool as heck. But when it doesn't
work out and they come back and say that it is the fault of the people who are
using it as it was originally intended, what gives? Nobody hired anybody to
be a Bricklink seller and nobody promised anybody that they could do it. The
people that are trying to clear pieces that come with their minifigs or the stuff
they don't want from a garage sale find or just now and then get something
at a flea market or a clearance set are legitimate Bricklink users and there
is no legit reason that they need to keep the prices up for people who want to
do it full-time.
Totally agree!
In any aspect of life- you need to adjust to your environment (the marketplace
in this case).
Many people wait/hope for the market to adjust/turn around to fit their needs
and that's simply never going to happen.
USA, New Jersey
Canada, Ontario
France, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
even if an answer could be there 
United Kingdom, England
