| Discussion Forum: Thread 236749 |
|
 |
| | | Author: | StormChaser  | | Posted: | May 22, 2018 17:24 | | Subject: | Inventory Change Request for Set 7817-1 | | Viewed: | 32 times | | Topic: | Inventories Requests (Entry) | | Status: | Open | |
|
| Please make changes to the following inventory:
* Add 4 Part 4081a Light Gray Plate, Modified 1 x 1 with Clip Light - Thin Ring (match ID 2)
* Change 4 Part Light Gray 4081b Plate, Modified 1 x 1 with Clip Light - Thick Ring {Regular to Alternate} {match ID 0 to 2}
Comments from Submitter:
I removed the thin ring clip (4081a) on May 4th, 2018 because I believed that there should be proof of its inclusion in this set. Currently the only proof of the thin ring clip is the set instructions, whereas the thick ring clip was shown to have appeared in actual sets from multiple independent sources.
However, it has since been pointed out to me that the removal of the thin ring clip makes this set an exception for the years 1985 and 1986. Only in 1987 was the thick ring clip included as a regular part according to BrickLink inventories.
I don't consider the thin ring clip variant proven to have appeared in this set, but I am adding it back into the inventory as a regular part to avoid inconsistency in the catalog.
|
|
|
| | | | | |
| | | | | Author: | SezaR | | Posted: | May 23, 2018 03:16 | | Subject: | Re: Inventory Change Request for Set 7817-1 | | Viewed: | 43 times | | Topic: | Inventories Requests | |
|
| For future reference, my opinion is as follows:
Fact: The instructions shows the thin ring clips.
We can only consider this as a mistake of instructions if there is a strong evidence
for not believing in it. Were there this evidence? I say: absolutely not
We have seen three copies of 7817 coming with thick ring clips. I do have the
photos of two other NIB copies of 7817 coming with thick ring clips. So five
in total.
Copy of Jetflap is for sure from 1989 or 1990, so it should come with thick ring
clips.
Paul thinks that his copy where bought after 1986 so that should also come with
thick ring clips.
1) I have seen many used copies of 7817 comin with four thin ring clips.
2) I try to explain this mathematic fact in simple words:
The probability theory says that there should be about 50 original copies of
7817 coming with thick ring clips to believe that 7817 NEVER came with thin ring
clips.
Assume that 20% came with thin ring clips. We pick RANDOMLY 50 copies of 7817.
What is the chance that NONE of them came with thin ring clip?
Answer= 0.9 to the power of 50= 0.9*0.9*0.9*...*0.9=0.000001 or 0.001%
This number is just a number otherwise in practice it is basically zero, meaning
impossible. In other words, it is impossible that you pick randomly 50 copies
of 7817 such that none came with thin ring clips. So if we can find 50 copies
of 7817 coming with thick ring clips, we can safely assume that there is no copy
of 7817 out there coming with thin ring clips. Our number is not yet 50 but only
5.
If I compute the same probability with 5 copies instead of 60, I get 0.32, or
about one third. This is not negligible so it does not give us anything.
3) I have seen many copies of 7745 in which thin or thick ring clips have appeared.
We can take a look at the production date of motor:
Thin ring clip:
Copy N1: 41 5
Copy N2: 45 4
Thick ring clip:
Copy N3: 17 6
Copy N4: 45 8
Copy N5: motor type 4 so was released after 1988
Based on this, the thick ring clips were used until the end of 1985 with the
set 7745.
In Inventories Requests, StormChaser writes:
| | Please make changes to the following inventory:
* Add 4 Part 4081a Light Gray Plate, Modified 1 x 1 with Clip Light - Thin Ring (match ID 2)
* Change 4 Part Light Gray 4081b Plate, Modified 1 x 1 with Clip Light - Thick Ring {Regular to Alternate} {match ID 0 to 2}
Comments from Submitter:
I removed the thin ring clip (4081a) on May 4th, 2018 because I believed that there should be proof of its inclusion in this set. Currently the only proof of the thin ring clip is the set instructions, whereas the thick ring clip was shown to have appeared in actual sets from multiple independent sources.
However, it has since been pointed out to me that the removal of the thin ring clip makes this set an exception for the years 1985 and 1986. Only in 1987 was the thick ring clip included as a regular part according to BrickLink inventories.
I don't consider the thin ring clip variant proven to have appeared in this set, but I am adding it back into the inventory as a regular part to avoid inconsistency in the catalog.
|
|
|
|
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | Author: | StormChaser | | Posted: | May 23, 2018 03:49 | | Subject: | Re: Inventory Change Request for Set 7817-1 | | Viewed: | 26 times | | Topic: | Inventories Requests | |
|
| In Inventories Requests, SezaR writes:
| | The probability theory says that there should be about 50 original copies of
7817 coming with thick ring clips to believe that 7817 NEVER came with thin ring
clips.
|
Then the probability theory is mistaken. It is not possible to prove anything
based on probability alone. Probability only offers degrees of certainty, but
can never prove or disprove anything.
For example, it is mathematically probable with a reasonably high degree of certainty
that life exists elsewhere in the universe. Of the 8 planets in our immediate
vicinity 12.5% are known to contain life (and not just life, but intelligent
life).
Consider the billions of planets which likely exist in our galaxy and multiply
that times the untold number of galaxies in the universe. Life, even intelligent
life, almost certainly exists elsewhere and I'd say the likelihood based
on probability alone is about 99.9%.
Yet is that proof? Nope. That's why we're still spending so much time
and energy looking for proof.
For a mildly interesting read about the disparity between the high likelihood
of intelligent life and its apparent absence, see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USA, Oklahoma
Canada, British Columbia